Humanity Hitting Life Span Limit
New research challenges the belief that most people born today will live to 100 or beyond. While life expectancy increased dramatically during the 19th and 20th centuries, these gains have slowed significantly in recent decades. In populations with the longest life spans, life expectancy has only increased by 6.5 years on average since 1990, compared to nearly doubling during the 20th century due to advances in disease prevention. Evidence now suggests that humanity is nearing a biological limit to life expectancy.
Lead researcher S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health explains that most people living longer today are benefiting from medical advances that provide additional years of life. However, these medical interventions are yielding diminishing returns, signaling that the rapid gains in life expectancy observed in the past may have come to an end. In the United States, for instance, a child born today is expected to live an average of 77.5 years, with girls living longer than boys.
Olshansky has studied life expectancy for many years and previously suggested that the ceiling for life expectancy might be around 85 years. His recent study, published in Nature Aging, reaffirms this notion, predicting that future gains in life expectancy will slow even as medical advances continue. The study analyzed data from countries with the highest life expectancies, including the U.S., where life expectancy has declined, and found that further increases in longevity may be limited by the natural aging process.
Despite the progress of modern medicine, Olshansky warns against assuming that most people will live to 100, a belief held by some insurers and financial planners. Instead, he argues that efforts should focus on improving the quality of life rather than simply extending it. Researchers advocate for greater investment in geroscience, which studies the biology of aging, as it may hold the key to extending both health and life spans.
Olshansky believes that while there may be limits to life expectancy, it is possible to extend healthy living through lifestyle changes, reducing risk factors, and addressing health disparities. Advances in geroscience could help break through what he describes as a “glass ceiling” in health and longevity, enabling people to live healthier, longer lives.
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