Parkinson’s Cases Predicted To Double In The Next Few Decades
A new study suggests that the number of people affected by Parkinson’s disease will more than double by 2050, largely due to the aging global population. The study, published in The BMJ, predicts that 25.2 million people will be living with Parkinson’s by mid-century. This sharp increase underscores the need for more research into treatments, including new drugs, gene therapy, and cell replacement methods, to slow the disease’s progression and enhance the quality of life for those affected, according to Tao Feng and his team from Beijing Tiantan Hospital Center for Movement Disorders.
Parkinson’s disease, a neurodegenerative disorder, occurs when brain cells that control movement become damaged or die. This results in symptoms such as tremors, stiffness, and issues with balance and coordination. While age is a primary risk factor—most cases develop after age 60—the condition is already the second most common neurodegenerative disease globally and continues to rise in prevalence.
The researchers used data from an ongoing global study tracking disease rates across 195 countries and territories. Their models predict a 112% increase in Parkinson’s cases by 2050, with the aging population accounting for 89% of this growth. The most significant rise is expected in Western Sub-Saharan Africa, where cases may nearly triple. In contrast, the least dramatic increase is anticipated in central and eastern Europe, where declining populations will reduce the impact of aging.
The study also highlights a growing gender disparity in Parkinson’s disease, with more men affected than women. By 2050, this gender gap is expected to widen slightly, from a ratio of 1.46 men for every woman in 2021 to 1.64. These findings can help guide health research priorities, inform public health policies, and better allocate resources to address the rising global burden of Parkinson’s disease.
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