Climate Change Could Triple Heat Deaths By 2050
If global warming remains largely unaddressed, the number of heat-related deaths in the U.S. is projected to triple by the middle of the century, according to new estimates. These deaths are expected to disproportionately impact low-income and minority communities compared to wealthier, white populations, reports a research team led by Dr. Sameed Khatana from the University of Pennsylvania.
While rising temperatures may slightly reduce deaths caused by extreme cold, the increase in deaths due to extreme heat is expected to far outweigh this, especially during heatwaves with temperatures in the triple digits. The researchers project that overall deaths related to extreme temperatures will double or even triple, depending on the level of carbon emissions. These findings were published on September 20 in JAMA Network Open.
A recent study highlighted that heat-related deaths in the U.S. have been on the rise steadily from 2016 to 2023. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), extreme heat can overwhelm the body’s ability to cool itself, leading to heat-related illnesses like heat exhaustion and heat stroke, which can cause severe damage to the brain and other vital organs.
In this new study, the researchers analyzed historical data on temperature-related deaths across all U.S. counties and then used climate projections from 20 models to estimate future death rates from 2036 to 2065. Two possible scenarios were considered: one with lower carbon emissions, reflecting a global shift toward renewable energy, and another assuming continued reliance on fossil fuels, leading to higher emissions.
In the more optimistic scenario, where emissions are somewhat controlled, heat-related deaths are predicted to rise from today’s average of 8,249 deaths per year to 19,348 by mid-century. In the worst-case scenario, annual deaths could climb to 26,574, tripling the current rate.
The study also revealed significant racial and ethnic disparities. By mid-century, the risk of extreme heat deaths is expected to rise by 71% for white Americans. However, Black Americans could see a staggering 395.7% increase in risk, and for Hispanic Americans, the risk may rise by 537.5%. This disparity is due to factors like limited access to air conditioning, greater exposure to the urban heat island effect, reduced green spaces, and increased vulnerability to power outages, all of which make minority communities more susceptible to extreme temperatures.
Even in regions with widespread access to air conditioning, such as the southern U.S., heat-related deaths remain high, the study noted. Additionally, climate change is expected to bring other health challenges, according to Dr. Eric Cioe-Peña from Northwell Health’s Center for Global Health. He pointed out that extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and the spread of mosquito-borne diseases like malaria and dengue fever into new regions are already visible consequences of climate change.
Cioe-Peña also highlighted the growing concern about the aging population, particularly as the baby boomer generation reaches retirement age. With 10,000 Americans turning 65 every day, the healthcare system faces the challenge of supporting a vulnerable elderly population more susceptible to heat-related illnesses.
Despite these alarming projections, the researchers emphasize that proactive measures, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing health vulnerabilities, could help prevent many of these deaths in the future.
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