Experts Predict Decline In Long COVID Cases
Recent research indicates that the likelihood of developing Long COVID is decreasing with the emergence of new virus variants, repeated infections, and vaccinations. This conclusion comes from a German study which suggests that the risk of long-term COVID-19 symptoms is diminishing over time.
Dr. André Karch from the University of Münster, the senior author of the study, emphasized that despite the incomplete understanding of the causes of post-COVID-19 conditions, the future outlook for those yet to experience Long COVID is positive. The study’s findings are based on a survey of nearly 110,000 Germans conducted in the fall of 2022.
Participants were asked if and when they had experienced Long COVID symptoms, including physical exhaustion, cardiovascular issues, and cognitive impairments. The World Health Organization defines Long COVID as new or persistent symptoms occurring within three months of a COVID-19 infection that cannot be explained by other causes. At the time of the survey, over 80% of respondents had received three or more COVID vaccines, and 60% had been infected with the virus.
Among those who had contracted COVID-19, about 35% reported experiencing at least one persistent symptom four to twelve months after infection. A quarter of this subgroup reported nine or more symptoms typically associated with Long COVID. However, encouraging trends were observed, especially with the latest COVID variant, Omicron, which showed the lowest rates of Long COVID. Higher rates were found among those infected with earlier variants like the “wild type,” Alpha, and Delta.
Study lead author Dr. Rafael Mikolajczyk noted that the risk of post-COVID-19 conditions appears to decrease with newer variants. Interestingly, the study also found that individuals who had been infected multiple times had lower odds of developing Long COVID compared to those infected for the first time. Additionally, receiving a fourth COVID vaccine dose seemed to reduce the risk of Long COVID, likely because vaccination decreases the severity of COVID-19 infections.
The time between vaccination and subsequent infection also influenced the likelihood of developing Long COVID. Infections occurring within three months of vaccination were more likely to lead to Long COVID than those occurring after a longer interval. These findings were recently published in the Journal of Infection, suggesting that the overall risk of Long COVID is declining over time, especially with Omicron infections and repeated exposures not followed by post-COVID-19 symptoms.
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