US Life Expectancy Trends Raise Concerns

There is a plateau.

U.S. life expectancy saw an increase last year, and preliminary data indicates a small but additional improvement for 2024. According to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released on Thursday, death rates dropped across almost all major causes, including COVID-19, heart disease, and drug overdoses. This led to an increase in life expectancy, adding nearly a year to the average lifespan of Americans.

This rise in life expectancy is part of a recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, but experts caution that it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, and the pace of improvement seems to be slowing. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, a researcher at the University of Minnesota, stated that while there is ongoing improvement, it is slowing down and life expectancy is converging back to a “normal” that is still lower than before the pandemic.

In 2023, approximately 3.1 million people died in the U.S., a reduction of about 189,000 from the previous year. Death rates decreased across all racial and ethnic groups and for both men and women. Initial data for the first 10 months of 2024 suggests a further decline of around 13,000 deaths, although the final count may narrow as more death certificates are processed. This means that while life expectancy for 2024 is expected to increase, it will likely not rise significantly.

Life expectancy, which estimates how long a baby born in a given year can expect to live based on current death rates, has been a key indicator of population health. It peaked at nearly 79 years in 2014 but dropped sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching just under 76.5 years in 2021. Last year, it increased to nearly 78.5 years. Women’s life expectancy continues to be higher than men’s, with women averaging over 81 years and men under 76 years.

The data also highlights positive trends in heart disease and overdose deaths. Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the U.S., but its death rate decreased by about 3% in 2023. Overdose deaths, which peaked in previous years, also dropped to 105,000 in 2023. Experts believe the decline in overdose deaths may continue, particularly as recent surveys show a decrease in teen drug use. Reducing the number of new drug users is seen as a key strategy in preventing future overdoses.